For almost 100 years now, the S&P 500 has averaged 1 bear market every 4 years.

When the S&P 500 dipped 20% from its peak in January, we officially entered the 3rd bear market in less than 4 years. Lucky us.

And now we are hearing more and more about a pending recession. But, we don’t know that we are in a recession until after the fact. That’s just how it works. We could be in one right now. The technical definition of a recession is two straight quarters of negative GDP, and we already had one. We will know in late July if the past six months were an official economic pullback. It seems possible and perhaps even likely.

Under the surface, we began to see